LONDON, 2025 — Claritas Intelligence has published its global Warm Water Aquaculture Feed Market report, sizing the market at USD 23.1 billion in 2025 and projecting it to reach USD 38.4 billion by 2033, a 6.4% CAGR over the 2025–2033 forecast period. The study covers shrimp (penaeids), tilapia, pangasius, carp species, and milkfish — species complexes that together represent more than 80% of warm water fed-aquaculture biomass globally.
The primary volume driver is production expansion. FAO estimates global aquaculture output must increase 35–40% by 2030 to keep pace with protein demand, with warm water species accounting for the bulk of that incremental pathway. The report projects that the transition from semi-intensive to intensive and super-intensive pond and cage systems is amplifying feed market value growth beyond raw production volume growth: per-cycle feed application per hectare is rising an estimated 40–80% as farms intensify, contributing an estimated 1.5–2.0 percentage points of CAGR above volume-only growth (Claritas model). Export-certification requirements from EU, US, and Japanese retail buyers — ASC, BAP, and GlobalG.A.P. — are creating an additional pull mechanism for antibiotic-free and traceable premium feed formulations, which carry 25–45% price premiums over commodity alternatives.
Asia Pacific commands approximately 68% of global warm water aquaculture feed demand in 2025, anchored by China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia (Claritas model). Within the region, South and Southeast Asia represents the fastest-growing geography, with India's shrimp feed segment alone estimated to expand at a 9.1% CAGR through 2033, supported by MPEDA export-promotion schemes and coastal aquaculture zone approvals under the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY), a program launched in 2020 with an approximately USD 2.4 billion total outlay through FY2025. The region's internal feed supply chain is simultaneously bifurcating: vertically integrated conglomerates such as CP Group and Haid Group are absorbing feed margin in-house, while independent regional mills face sustained squeeze between input costs and spot-price competition.
Ingredient economics are reshaping the competitive landscape faster than consensus timelines anticipated. Fishmeal spot prices at Lima, Peru exceeded USD 1,600 per tonne in Q1 2025 (Claritas model), accelerating cost-driven substitution with plant-based and novel proteins. Black soldier fly meal inclusion rates in shrimp pre-starter diets reached 8–12% at commercial mills in Vietnam and Ecuador as of Q3 2024, ahead of any formal regulatory mandate. The report estimates that BSFM, single-cell protein, and algal ingredients collectively address a USD 1.2 billion ingredient market growing at an estimated 18–22% CAGR within aquafeed (Claritas model). On the supply side, Nutreco N.V.'s Skretting division and BioMar Group A/S together hold an estimated 18–22% of the addressable premium-feed segment outside China (Claritas model), while Cargill and Nutreco are piloting AI-driven feed-conversion-ratio optimization tools at commercial scale in Vietnam and Ecuador as of 2024.
"The conventional read on this market focuses on volume growth tied to population-driven protein demand — that story is real, but it understates the value inflection. Intensification and certification premiums together are compressing the gap between volume CAGR and revenue CAGR. Antibiotic-free mandates are also consolidating the mill landscape faster than most models assume, and fishmeal substitution driven by cost arbitrage — not regulation — could pull forward the peak in aquaculture fishmeal demand by several years relative to FAO baseline scenarios." — Tanvi Kulkarni, Senior Analyst, Claritas Intelligence
About Claritas Intelligence: Claritas Intelligence is a global market intelligence publisher serving strategy teams, investors, and trade professionals across agriculture, food, and adjacent industries. The firm's research combines proprietary field surveys, trade data modeling, and expert-network interviews to deliver analyst-led market sizing and forecasting.
The full analysis, including segmentation, regional breakdowns, forecasts, and company profiles, is available in the Warm Water Aquaculture Feed Market Report.
“The global warm water aquaculture feed market is estimated at USD 23.1B in 2025 and projected to reach USD 38.4B by 2033 at a 6.4% CAGR, per new Claritas Intelligence research.”
Tanvi Kulkarni
Research Analyst – Food & Beverages